Friday, April 07, 2017

Conpiracy Falsifiable Claim (CFC)

I have been dead wrong about Trump in the past, and I hate conspiracy theories. Nevertheless, there are instances where high-level government official have secretly used their power and influence in a criminal manner.

In science, a theory is something that scientists know to be true. It's more than just a guess. So I don't really like to use the word "theory" unless I'm 100% sure about something. I prefer the term "Conspiracy Falsifiable Claim" (CFC) when I have an idea that something is up but I just have circumstantial evidence instead of concrete proof.

My CFC regarding the cruise missile strikes in Syria is that Trump had colluded with Putin.

Trump doesn't want to look like Putin's puppet, so he decides to "intervene" in Syria. He notifies Putin about the airstrikes, and Putin warns Assad. The Navy launches missiles at a bunch of empty buildings.
Assad is tired of the civil war even though he is "winning". So he uses the attacks as a pretext for peace talk with the rebel factions that he hates the least. He makes himself look like a moderate.
Trump gets credit for ending the civil war, and paints himself as the second coming of Ronald Reagan.
Putin sits in a cozy leather chair in his dacha petting a fluffy white cat.

Right now a lot of alt-right guys are turning their backs on Trump. If this is sincere attempt to dislodge Assad, they are opposed to it for realpolitik reason. Even most of the alt-right sees stupid wars as a waste of lives and resources, and they spend most of 2016 painting Hillary Clinton (accurately) as a warmonger.

But if Trump spins the strikes as having ended the Syrian civil war, then he'll get back his gullible fan base.

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